Symons: Population estimates suggest major redistricting looms

Michael Symons of Gannett reports on the Census Bureau's final population estimates for every municipality before this year’s official counts are released in early 2011 indicating that "some serious retooling of the legislative map is in store in advance of next year’s Senate and Assembly races." According to Symons' analysis of the numbers. . . .

Six districts have estimated populations that are too large, if the estimates prove correct, with another three districts are are pretty close. The six that would have to shed towns include the 2nd and 9th districts along the Shore, the 12th and 30th districts in Central Jersey, the 3rd District in rural South Jersey and the 23rd District in rural northwest New Jersey.

Another seven districts have estimated populations that are too small and would need to expand. These include the 27th, 29th and 34th districts in Essex County, the 31st, 32nd and 33rd districts in Hudson County and the 15th District in Mercer County.

New Jersey Legislative Reapportionment and Congressional Redistricting Primer

New Jersey's legislative and congressional districts will soon be redrawn by two separate independent commissions made up of members selected by leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties in the State.

First, by November 15, 2010, members State's Legislative Reapportionment Commission must be appointed by the respective chairs of the Republican and Democratic State Committees. This Commission must create a map by February 1, 2011, or within one month after the census data becomes available. This is the map that will govern the next round of legislative contests that partisan candidates must file to run in by April 2011.

Republicans will likely be seeking a more competitive map from what was adopted in 2001 that has resulted in Democratic pluralities in both houses of the Legislature for the last decade despite aggregate statewide election results favoring Republican candidates in recent years. Democrats will likely be seeking to maintain the status quo, but could face constitutional hurdles due to the March 2009 decision of the United States Supreme Court in Bartlett v. Strickland. This is very similar to questions raised in relation to New Jersey's current legislative map in 2001 regarding whether section 2 of the Voting Rights Act required the division of municipalities into more than two legislative districts contrary to the political boundary requirements of Article IV, Section 2, Paragraph 3 of the New Jersey Constitution. See: McNeil v. Legislative Apportionment Commission.

Second, with respect to Congressional redistricting, it is almost certain that when the results of the census are in, New Jersey will lose a congressional district for the first time in 30 years. We should know for sure by January 10, 2011 when Congressional seats are to be apportioned to the states. This should make for much more interesting mapmaking than the incumbency protection plan that was adopted in October 2001. Members of New Jersey's Congressional Redistricting Commission must be selected by respective legislative and state party leaders by June 15, 2011. The Commission must complete its work by January 17, 2012, which will govern where partisan candidates file to run for Congress by April 2012.